On September 30, 2026, the United States completed the withdrawal of its remaining 2,500 troops from Iraqi territory, ending 12 years of the US-led Operation Inherent Resolve mission against ISIS. Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi declared the day as "Independence Day," marking the country's freedom from foreign military presence. The withdrawal concludes more than two decades of US military involvement in Iraq, following the 2003 invasion and subsequent return in 2014 to combat ISIS.

The US withdrawal does not end all foreign military deployments in Iraq. Turkey maintains troops in the country, though it has agreed to gradually transfer a military base in northern Iraq to Baghdad. Renad Mansour of Chatham House noted that the 2024 agreement between Baghdad and Washington aimed to normalize their relationship, with Baghdad seeking to maintain its alliance with the US despite concerns over its ties to Iran-backed militias.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi extended the disarmament deadline for armed groups to June 30, 2027. The plan includes a 90-day period of non-attack in exchange for assurances that US forces will not target them, followed by a gradual handover of weapons. However, several powerful armed groups, including Kata'ib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba, have rejected disarmament or demanded conditions that could delay the process. Alina L. Romanowski of the Atlantic Council noted that many political movements are associated with armed organizations, making a security sector revolution unlikely in the near future.

The withdrawal also includes the removal of US air defense systems in Erbil, the capital of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region. Kurdish Prime Minister Masrour Barzani has called for protection against missile and drone attacks from Iran. Since the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran in February, attacks by Iran-backed armed groups on US-linked targets in Erbil have increased. On Monday, Kurdish officials reported three drones targeting a camp affiliated with Iran's Kurdish opposition, though responsibility for the attack was not independently confirmed.

Yerevan Saeed of the Atlantic Council and American University expressed concern that Iraq's vulnerable minorities, including Christians, Yazidis, and Kurdish communities, could be more exposed after October 1, 2026. He noted that the withdrawal signals the end of an era in which foreign military presence provided a buffer against regional predation. Chatham House's Mansour suggested that US-Iraqi ties will shift toward economic cooperation rather than a security-focused relationship, with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasizing the need for a secure environment free from terrorist coercion.

What remains unknown is the full extent of the impact of the US withdrawal on Iraq's security and the potential for renewed conflict among armed groups.