Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma claimed on Tuesday that the BJP could win all 126 assembly seats in the state in the 31st Vidhan Sabha elections if it secured the Nagaon Lok Sabha bypoll on October 6. Speaking at a press conference, Sarma stated that the party had seen a 'visible change' in its favor in the constituency over the past month. The Nagaon Lok Sabha seat, which fell vacant after Congress leader Pradyut Bordoloi joined the BJP, is contested by the BJP, Congress, and AIUDF. The BJP has fielded former IAS officer Debashish Sharma, while Congress has nominated former MLA Sibamoni Bora. Three-time AIUDF MP Badruddin Ajmal is also contesting the seat.

Sarma said the BJP had won four of the eight assembly segments in the 2026 assembly polls, with margins of around 50,000 votes each. The opposition won the remaining four segments by margins of more than 1.5 lakh votes each. He claimed the political mood in the constituency was shifting towards the BJP and that the party’s position was improving with each passing day. 'Even before the elections were announced, many people joined the BJP even in constituencies where we do not have MLAs,' he added.

Assam Congress president Gaurav Gogoi expressed confidence that the party would win the upcoming Nagaon Lok Sabha by-election, saying the Congress would mount a strong campaign. Gogoi claimed the BJP had been rattled after the Congress announced its candidate and alleged that Ajmal was being brought into the contest to support Sarma. The bypoll will be held on October 6, with counting scheduled for April 9.

The Nagaon seat is significant as it is part of the broader political landscape in Assam, where the BJP, Congress, and AIUDF are the main parties. The outcome of the bypoll could influence the trajectory of the state’s political landscape ahead of the 2031 assembly elections. However, the claim by Sarma that the BJP would secure all 126 seats if it won Nagaon remains speculative and has not been substantiated by any concrete data or analysis. The BJP’s performance in the bypoll will be a key indicator of its strength in the region.

The political dynamics in Nagaon are complex, with multiple parties vying for influence. While Sarma’s assertion is based on the BJP’s recent gains in the constituency, the opposition parties have not provided any counter-evidence or alternative analysis. The bypoll results will be crucial in determining the validity of Sarma’s claim. The absence of a clear response from the opposition parties means that the claim remains unchallenged in the current evidence.

What remains unknown is the extent of the BJP’s support base in Nagaon and whether the party’s recent gains are sustainable. The bypoll results will provide a clearer picture of the political landscape in the constituency. Until then, Sarma’s claim remains a hypothesis based on current political trends rather than a verified fact. The outcome of the bypoll will be a critical test for the BJP’s ambitions in Assam.