Scientists have linked last month’s deadly floods in Nepal and Tibet to climate change, citing a combination of warming temperatures, glacier retreat and permafrost thaw as key factors. The World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, using peer-reviewed methods, concluded that the disaster was not caused by a single extreme weather event, but rather a 'compound crisis' shaped by long-term climate shifts. The collapse of a massive section of rock and glacier on August 26 triggered a flood that killed more than 1,400 people and left thousands missing, according to official figures.

The study, released by WWA, found that temperatures in July and August were about 5 degrees Celsius higher than normal, with 1.5 degrees attributed to climate change. This warming has exposed ice and permafrost deep in the Himalayan bedrock to longer and higher thaw temperatures, weakening mountain slopes. Walter Immerzeel, a mountain hydrologist at Utrecht University, said the region is undergoing 'fundamental, irreversible shifts' that are undermining mountain stability. The report also noted that a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in 2015 may have further weakened the slope, though its precise role remains uncertain.

Nepal’s disaster authority has revised the number of missing people to 6,150, following data collection and verification in affected districts. The number of bodies retrieved stands at 1,403, 105 of which have been identified. In China, the toll is 43 dead and 519 missing, according to state media. The combined toll from both nations now stands at 1,446 people dead and at least 6,669 missing. Nepal estimates the reconstruction bill from the flood will cost $4.78bn.

Friederike Otto, a professor of climate science at Imperial College London, said there is 'no doubt' that climate change is one of the drivers of the disaster and needs to be discussed in the context of loss and damage. The study also highlighted that unusually high levels of snowfall in late 2025 contributed to increased meltwater before the collapse, which could have helped trigger the glacier collapse. However, the exact role of climate change in the event remains difficult to ascertain, with researchers noting that the disaster was the result of a combination of factors.

The study acknowledges that while climate change played a significant role in creating the conditions for the disaster, the precise contribution remains uncertain. The report also raises concerns about the limits of adaptation in the face of ongoing climate shifts. Prime Minister Balendra Shah will address the United Nations General Assembly on the issue next week, marking his first foreign trip as Nepal’s leader.

What remains unknown is the exact contribution of climate change to the glacier collapse, as well as the full extent of the damage and long-term implications for the region. The study calls for urgent global action to address the impacts of climate change, particularly in vulnerable regions like the Himalayas. The findings underscore the need for a more comprehensive understanding of how climate change interacts with geological and environmental factors to shape future risks.